This week on “The Voice,” we’re down to 10 contestants, another two of whom go home tonight, so if nothing else our odds of predicting who’s going home are naturally improving week to week. But let’s look at the social media numbers again. First, overall “share of voice”:

Then, positive “share of voice”:

For the first week ever, both rankings produce the same bottom two, Amber and Kris.

If we look at week-to-week follower count growth, however, we get a different ranking:

Twitter handle	Followers 5/14	Followers 5/21	Delta	Percentage
@theswonbrothers	14750	19588	4838	33%
@michellechamuel	21305	27370	6065	28%
@josiahhawley	40894	50517	9623	24%
@dbradbery	45723	55430	9707	21%
@hollytmusic	13454	16273	2819	21%
@ambercarrington	14520	17149	2629	18%
@kristhomasmusik	12130	13966	1836	15%
@sarahsimmusic	25314	28828	3514	14%
@sashaallenmusic	16674	18985	2311	14%
@judith_hill	39953	43041	3088	8%

So the question is whether buzz or follower count (or neither) correlates better with actual results. So far, follower count has correlated a lot less well, so this week I’m going with buzz — especially since overall buzz and positive buzz line up this time.

But social numbers haven’t been right yet this season, which I’m sure make Kris and Amber happy to no end. 🙂

Yesterday I looked at a number of different cuts of social media data and found a number of candidates for the Bottom 2 on “The Voice.” The interesting thing about the actual results was that none of the data I had access to correlated with the outcome, at least in a discernable pattern that you could build any sort of rule or model off of. I could try using a stats tool like R to find non-intuitive features that better predict an outcome, but that is probably like using a bulldozer to pound in a nail — there aren’t enough samples to make that approach meaningful. So I’m left with hypotheses:

• Twitter isn’t a good proxy for voting behavior in the case of this show due to either a demographic skew or to the fact that the audience gravitates in general to other channels of interaction.
• I haven’t found the right features yet. I used growth in Twitter followers as one potential proxy for “momentum,” and that correlated with one of the results — Vedo had by far the lowest percentage growth in followers week to week (he started of course with the highest number, so it gets harder to maintain the same growth rate), but in the case of the other ousted contestant, Garrett Gardner, we saw the highest percentage growth in followers, so that piece of data doesn’t correlate at all. Garrett, in fact, by any of the numbers I had access to or derived, should still be on the show. (Though I personally found his vocal performance on Monday weak, despite an interesting arrangement.)
• The vote tallies among the bottom half of the contestants are actually fairly close (which the counts I had showed as well), so until we get to a point where we see either much greater volume or much greater differences between contestants, the best we’re going to do is random guesses over a larger pool of contestants with similar numbers. In other words, absolute rankings don’t work until you start to see larger gaps.

One thing is for sure — pure follower count is meaningless in this show (as it was in last week’s “American Idol”). A lesson for all who use follower count as a proxy for influence.

Last night’s “Voice” episode featured the Top 12, and for the first time this season, audience votes and downloads are the only determining factor for who goes home tonight. Like last week, I’ll be looking at Twitter numbers as a proxy for voting behavior so that we can see the extent to which opinions expressed there correlate with results. The voting methods as explained on the show were phone, text, Facebook and iTunes download, so Twitter is an independent factor in this equation and has no direct bearing on the outcome.

Last week, the Twitter-derived numbers correlated reasonably well. Not perfectly, though. For Team Adam, I hadn’t set up the topic in time, so had about 1/5 of the numbers I had for the Team Blake and Team Shakira contestants. So there my numbers were just plain off. The other factor was the judge’s discretion, and Blake elected to save the Swon Brothers rather than Justin Rivers. Welcome to the big leagues!

I personally enjoyed many of last night’s performances, but what’s important is what those who might vote thought. I took a couple of different cuts at the data. The first is simply looking at “share of voice” from the period of the airing of the show (starting in the Eastern time zone) through late this morning Pacific time. Here’s what we get:

Simply taking the ranking from most mentions to least during this time period, we end up with a Bottom 2 of Kris Thomas and Michelle Chamuel. We could look at the data another way, though: if we filter by positive sentiment — the idea being that people who express positive opinions are more likely to vote (or perhaps “you vote FOR someone, not AGAINST someone else”) — then the rankings change a little:

 

Now Amber Carrington and Holly Tucker make up the Bottom 2. However, note that the overall numbers aren’t very high when we apply this filter (sentiment analysis isn’t an exact science by any means, and the software used here is biased towards precision over recall, so is somewhat conservative.

Confounding the data further is iTunes, which doesn’t give precise data but does provide a “popularity” meter. If we look at each of the above sets of Bottom 2, we do see that Amber and Michelle’s performances did not max out the popularity meter, whereas Kris’ and Holly’s did.

One other data point we can look at is a week-to-week difference in Twitter followers. If we rank by percentage gain first, then by overall number, we get:

Twitter handle	FollowersLastWeek	FollowersThisWeek	Delta	Percentage
@garrettgardner2	16893	24426	7533	45%
@michellechamuel	14872	21305	6433	43%
@dbradbery	32352	45723	13371	41%
@josiahhawley	29100	40894	11794	41%
@theswonbrothers	10644	14750	4106	39%
@hollytmusic	10232	13454	3222	31%
@ambercarrington	11274	14520	3246	29%
@kristhomasmusik	9721	12130	2409	25%
@sarahsimmusic	20826	25314	4488	22%
@sashaallenmusic	13735	16674	2939	21%
@judith_hill	36078	39953	3875	11%
@vedothesinger	59217	61606	2389	4%

Based on this, it looks like Michelle picked up a lot of followers, so I’m going to have to go with Kris and Amber as the ones going home, with a possibility that Holly ends up somewhere in there. But I’m not taking it to Vegas — the differences aren’t large. Tough call this week!

Enjoy the show!

I was planning to enjoy a few months as a professional triathlete — well, that’s what my wife calls my vacation from work — but a little issue somewhere in the left glute / piriformis / hamstring has curtailed my running, so I find myself back in the world of social analytics, but totally for fun. And what’s more fun than finals season on “American Idol” and “The Voice”?

I’m often asked about (and asked to speak about) the predictive power of social media analysis, and I always tell people it’s more of an art than a science. Also, the predictive power of social media numbers varies according to what you’re trying to predict. Events that are rooted in popularity, though, correlate pretty well with numbers you see in social media, and that’s especially true where the events have a voting system that isn’t just one person, one vote (like political elections). Hence, televised singing contests where the audience votes.

We’re well into “Idol” right now — we’re down to the Top 3, one of whom gets booted this week, and next week is the finale — so I’ve decided to take a look instead at “The Voice,” which is several weeks away from its finale and still has, as of this writing, 16 contestants. Tonight, four will go home — one from each judge’s team. The way the process is supposed to work, the top two vote getters on each of the four teams advance, and then each judge gets to choose among his/her bottom two for who advances and who goes home. Therefore, audience votes get you in the top two, but then it’s up to the judges — not the best scenario for showcasing predictive power of social media.

Nevertheless, let’s look at the data we have. First, the contestants, their Twitter handles, their current follower count, and their Klout score:

Contestant	Twitter handle	Followers	Klout
Danielle Bradbery	@dbradbery	32352	66
Holly Tucker	@hollytmusic	10232	65
Justin Rivers	@justinrivers	58910	63
Swon Brothers	@theswonbrothers	10644	63
Sasha Allen	@sashaallenmusic	13735	68
Garrett Gardner	@garrettgardner2	16893	63
Kris Thomas	@kristhomasmusik	9721	65
Karina Iglesias	@karinaiglesias_	9024	64
Caroline Glaser	@carolineglaser	40132	68
Judith Hill	@judith_hill	36078	73
Sarah Simmons	@sarahsimmusic	20826	66
Amber Carrington	@ambercarrington	11274	63
Josiah Hawley	@josiahhawley	29100	68
Michelle Chamuel	@michellechamuel	14872	66
Vedo	@vedothesinger	59217	72
Cathia	@cathiasings	10527	66

Certain contestants “punch above their weight” when you compare their Klout score to their follower count; Klout’s metrics are proprietary but place a greater emphasis on engagement (e.g., replies, retweets, etc.) vs. pure potential audience size.

Just as a comparison point, we if we look at the three remaining contestants on “Idol,” we see the following:

Contestant	Twitter handle	Followers	Klout
Angie Miller	@angieai12	143664	79
Candice Glover	@candiceai12	78983	78
Kree Harrison	@kreeai12	74503	74

So even if “The Voice” is beating “Idol” in the ratings, the “Idol” contestants have a greater social media presence by several measures than do the “Voice” contestants. An interesting side note: all “Idol” finalists — including the ones that have long since gone home, have “verified” accounts on Twitter (meaning that Twitter considers them celebrities), whereas none of the “Voice” contestants do. This suggests to me that a deal was brokered between the “Idol” producers and Twitter.

Then we have actual buzz on social media. In my Attensity Media account, I set up a “Voice” topic and also created specific “entities” for all of the contestants that conflated their names, Twitter handles and hashtags so that I could get their counts in one place. I did set this up pretty late on Monday, after the show had aired in prime time, so the “Team Adam” and “Team Usher” contestants (who performed that evening) will have lower numbers than the “Team Blake” and “Team Shakira” contestants, who performed last night. Anyway, here’s what the live dashboard looks like:

So what do we have? We can compare two sets of numbers: general social media popularity and current week’s “buzz,” keeping in mind the grouping by judge. If we do that, we get:

Team Adam

Caroline Glaser	40132	68	2690
Judith Hill	36078	73	2500
Sarah Simmons	20826	66	1238
Amber Carrington	11274	63	1101

Team Blake

Justin Rivers	58910	63	4671
Danielle Bradbery	32352	66	10598
Swon Brothers	10644	63	4011
Holly Tucker	10232	65	5167

Team Shakira

Garrett Gardner	16893	63	5388
Sasha Allen	13735	68	5515
Kris Thomas	9721	65	4192
Karina Iglesias	9024	64	2439

Team Usher

Vedo	59217	72	1516
Josiah Hawley	29100	68	1784
Michelle Chamuel	14872	66	1728
Cathia	10527	66	1125

Again, the buzz numbers are artificially low for Team Adam and Team Usher contestants since I set up the topic late. There’s also the judges’ discretion in which of the bottom two vote-getters each judge decides to eliminate. That said, we’ll see tonight how predictive the social numbers are. Enjoy the show!